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renkoumoxing
本文区别于其他传统的人口预测模型，深入分析了当前中国人口的基本情况，以及
最近几年中国人口的发展情况与趋势，针对中国人口基数大、男女比例不协调、乡村人
口城镇化加速、人口老龄化日益严重等显著特点，在各年龄段生育率短期内保持不变的
假设下，建立基本的人口转移回归模型，用于模拟预测短期内中国各类人口数量发展变
化。该模型预测结果显示，中国人口在未来十几年内增长一定幅度后开始下降；与此同
时，人口老龄化、男女比例失调等问题日益严重。该模型短期内的预测效果比较好。
为了使中国将来的人口发展健康、平衡，综合考虑中国以及欧洲一些发达国家和亚
洲一些实行计划生育较早的国家以前以及当前的一些情况，本文提出了修改计划生育政
策的建议。面对日益严重的老龄化现象，我们提出生育率应该参考老龄人口比例这一新
思想，并建立生育率与老龄人口比例的关系模型，用于长期人口的预测。预测结果显示
中国总人口在短期内持续上升，在2025 年到2040 年之间基本保持在14.6 亿的最大值，
然后开始缓慢下降。
两个模型的结果均显示，中国将会面临严重的老龄化和男女比例不协调两个问题。
最后我们提出了适当措施以缓和这两个问题带来的影响。(This is different from other traditional population projection model, in-depth analysis of the current basic situation of China s population, and
In recent years the development of China s population and the trend for China s huge population, gender disharmony, rural people
I accelerated urbanization, the growing aging population and other significant features in the short term fertility of all ages remain unchanged
Assumption, the establishment of basic population transfer regression model, to simulate and predict the short term development of China s various types of population change
Of. The predicted results show that China s population growth in the next decade began to decrease after a certain extent and the same
When an aging population, gender imbalance and other growing problem. The model predicted the short-term results were better.
To make the development of China s future population health, balance, considering China and some developed countries in Europe and A)
- 2010-05-13 11:54:40下载
- 积分：1
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hanshubijin
matlab algorithm
matlab教程
matlab函数逼近(matlab algorithm)
- 2012-05-15 11:24:20下载
- 积分：1
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abdi-PCA4Wiley
ua University, in 2002 publi
this document, including the Mont
A program of curve fitting based
Bayesian Filter. Bayesian (Bayesi
a target tracking system MATLAB s
cubic spline curve fitting This i
book is widely used in engineerin
this study is extended Kalman Fil
particle filter algorithm code, t
use AR model for time series pred
principal component analysis algo
HMM, C language, it is important
spectrum analysis techniques to s
digital watermarking technology p
mean-shift method for the example
chaotic sequence of phase space r
Serializing objects using CArchiv
C compile some of the most optimi
The source code of FFT,is a good
Mailto US | Studio | Copyright Complaints
- 2009-10-23 13:43:22下载
- 积分：1
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Jordan
Jordan消去法，用matlab编写的。可以用作初学者学习用。(Jordan elimination method, using matlab prepared. Can be used for beginners to learn to use.)
- 2011-05-07 15:34:13下载
- 积分：1
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xiangguanfx
输入两波形，利用相关分析提取其中某一频率的波形，并可进行延迟分析(Two input waveforms, including the use of correlation analysis to extract a frequency waveform, and the delay analysis)
- 2011-09-02 14:37:56下载
- 积分：1
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minPowell
POWELL算法求最小值，可求取多个函数的最小值，速度和精度都很高。(POWELL algorithms seek the minimum, the minimum can be to strike a number of functions, speed and accuracy are high.)
- 2009-10-27 20:13:24下载
- 积分：1
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guided-filter-code
本文提出了一种滤波源码来简化图像抠图中的一个大型稀疏矩阵算法，从而优化了算法，提高了效率。(This paper presents a filter in the source code to simplify the image matting, a large sparse matrix algorithm, to optimize the algorithm and improve efficiency.)
- 2010-11-18 11:23:25下载
- 积分：1
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CDMA
说明： CDMA系统中的功率控制，仿真实现了CDMA系统的多种情况下的功率控制(CDMA power control system, simulation of the CDMA system to achieve a variety of power control in case of)
- 2008-08-27 17:03:20下载
- 积分：1
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1111
说明： 基于Matlab的扩频高度表捕获跟踪算法软件仿真(Matlab-based spread-spectrum acquisition and tracking algorithm for software simulation altimeter)
- 2010-03-29 10:52:30下载
- 积分：1
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333
求插值逼近的matlab程序非常有用，而且运行速率比较快。非常不错。(Find interpolation approximation matlab program very useful and run faster rate. Very good.)
- 2013-12-11 18:09:39下载
- 积分：1
